Energy shock, cheaper grains: what buyers should do this quarter
Energy and petrochemical prices have jumped while grains have eased. The right move depends on which side of that split your basket sits.
Energy and petrochemicals
Crude, diesel and European gas are near 12-month highs and the forward curves are in backwardation — later delivery is cheaper than today.
- Cover near-term needs you cannot avoid
- Avoid long fixed-price deals at the peak
- Layer remaining volume over the coming months
Grains
Corn and wheat are in the lower part of their 12-month ranges with forward curves in contango.
- Lower prices are a chance to lock in
- Extend cover further out than usual
- Ask suppliers for fixed prices on deferred months
Metals
Tariffs and regional premiums now matter as much as the exchange price.
- Track the all-in delivered price, not just LME
- Negotiate premiums separately from the base price
What to take to council
One page per commodity line: urgency, recommendation, upside risk in money terms, and the book-by date.
- Lead with the money at risk
- Show what is recommended and what is not
- Name who signs and by when
Decision support for procurement, not investment or trading advice. Market conditions change; check current data before booking.